With Saturday 14th January marking one year since the ousting of President Ben Ali in Tunisia, we should take a moment to reflect on what the “Arab Spring” has achieved in the past year. We have seen the ousting of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi in Libya and Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh. But democracy has not spread as far as one might have thought, giving rise to soul-searching debates across the Southern Mediterranean and the Arab world about what political developments will happen next.

What has happened so far?

The power of the internet to instigate political change in this situation has been clear from the outset (see my blog of 25th February). Protesters harnessed the power of social networking websites such as Facebook, Twitter and Skype to organise themselves and put huge pressure on autocratic regimes. They have also been able to bypass traditional state control of media, and to communicate with the outside world in situations where foreign journalists have limited access. Some estimates suggested that in early 2011, 40-45 tweets per minute were coming from Egypt and 30-35 tweets per minute from Syria and Lebanon to spread their message, often written in English for international consumption, and putting international pressure on their speakers.

Initial optimism in the West about the potential spread of democracy in Arabia has been offset by worries about the rise of political Islam. On 10 December, the Economist asked “Is the Arab spring turning into a bleak midwinter?”. In Egypt, the mild-mannered Muslim Brotherhood is currently the clear frontrunner for the elections underway, and in Tunisia and Morocco, similar groups have already won elections. Islamists are also dominant players in Libya, Syria, and Yemen. But the Economist warns that our own suspicions of political Islam should not stop us from supporting democracy across the region. It says, “So far, the version (of political Islam) emerging as predominant seems relatively benevolent. We should grit our teeth and cautiously welcome it”.

How successful has the West been in its help?

Indeed, Western support has been crucial to the unfolding of events over the past year. In the case of Libya, Europeans have taken the lead, with a prominent role taken by Prime Minister David Cameron. Meanwhile, America was more in the background in helping the military intervention of NATO which led to the successful capture of Gadaffi in October after months of civil war.

Has the European Union been able to make a substantive contribution to these events? The answer so far is yes, through focussing on the “3 Ms”: Money, Mobility and Markets:

• Money:  In addition to over €153 million of humanitarian aid (together with its Member States), the EU has undertaken to make available up to a further €1.2 billion to the European Neighbourhood for the period 2011-2013, created more flexible support programmes and facilitated the granting of loans by European financial institutions.
• Mobility: the EU has decided that more access should be given for university scholarships and ‘mobility partnerships’ (including visa facilitation) but not for permanent migration;
• Markets: the EU aims to improve market access as well as the progressive integration of the economies of these partners to participate in the EU single market.

The added value that the EU brings in this situation, coordinating European countries with this type of aid, is of considerable importance.

What next?

First, it is envisaged that more will be done to coordinate aid at the EU level. In its budget proposals for the period 2014-2020, the European Commission recommends to allocate more than €18.1 billion to support the 16 partner countries of the Neighbourhood (both East and South), which represents a 40% increase compared to the financial support of the period 2007-2013. This will be crucial to ensuring that there is stability in the region. But how this money will be spent remains open for debate.

Second, at the beginning of 2012, it is clear that  the process started by the “Arab Spring” is far from over, as countries continue to find their feet and people find their voice. Developments in Syria are very worrying with the death toll now over 5,000, and questions are being asked about how the international Community intends to respond. William Hague recently commented “we’ve agreed the oil embargo, with the European Union, and many other sanctions…But we are not contemplating, at this stage, military intervention” (see The Times on 13th January). But this is not the only issue: the broader question of the Middle East question still remains unresolved, and European sanctions have been placed on Iran which is building up its nuclear capacity. Noone can tell where this will end.

Last but not least, the indicators mentioned above point to continuing instability which can only be strengthened as the ICT Revolution increases the autonomy of individuals and powerful private actors, challenging traditional sources of power. Oppressive regimes are likely to be weakened as efforts to control citizens’ online world are likely to be circumvented by technological innovation. We have already seen the explosion of mobile telephony in Africa, protests against Vladimir Putin in Russia, and calls for a Chinese “Jasmine Revolution”.

Wael Ghuonen, a Google executive who helped set up a Facebook site at the start of the Arab Spring, sets his mind against confrontational tactics (see the Times, 13th January). Instead, he highlights the importance of navigating a middle way, saying that “We have to see our country stable, “We have to see our country stable, but not at the price of democracy, not at the price of human rights. People are not angry with the revolution, they are angry at certain actions done by some revolutionaries.” He added, in typical upbeat mode: “There’s no progress that’s going to happen through pessimism.” No doubt 2012 will be an interesting year as the taste for freedom spreads and democracy is on the march.

Global Security