Happy New Year to you all. While much of Britain is being immobilised by heavy snow fall and Brussels is clogged up with hearings for nominated Commissioners in the European Parliament (a commendable democratic exercise to which I will return in my next blog), my subject today is one which has occupied much of the comment columns in the past few weeks as editorialists look to the future over the next decade 2010-2020 (as promised in my last blog…).

I return to a recent 7-day visit to China and Japan I made with a few American and European policy-makers and officials to discuss prospects for global governance 2025 with thinktankers, foreign ministries, businesses, journalists and others. Here are a few of the key paragraphs of my initial impressions (to read the full version, click here).

Rise of Asia…
Why not focus our minds for a moment on the rise of Asia. Many people have predicted that the 21st Century will be when Asia reasserts its’ dominance in the global system. Some experts believe that by 2050, China and India will share up to 50% of global GDP. Nice to think that that could occur in 40 years’ time: not really my problem…

Regrettably, it is everyone’s problem as the speed which China is becoming a major global player, as witnessed recently at the climate talks in Copenhagen, is truly remarkable. The global order changed fundamentally in 2009 with the introduction of the G20 to help resolve the global financial crisis resulting in 3 of China’s banks reaching the top 5 in the world.

China…
In Beijing, gone are the 9 million bicycles of Katie Melua replaced by motorways filled with buses and cars. Always courteous, surprisingly open and willing to discuss ways in which to face global challenges together. Barring major internal problems ahead, they basically recognise the need to assume their role as a global super power. But would prefer not to do so yet….they still feel their place is to represent the concerns of developing countries, contrasting markedly with their financial power.  “Be patient” is the message and help the Chinese with their problems. Thus, China is a rising superpower, likely to overtake Japan in economic size very shortly.

Japan…
In Tokyo, there was a different message. A rich country with a well-developed infrastructure, with a deeply rooted democratic tradition… But one going through a fundamental transition with a new Government in power since last August, overturning a long period of single party rule. Vital decisions remain to be taken but signs of unease with the US/Japan relationship are evident with discussions over one of the US bases there.

Although its ageing population and its inward lookingness are drawbacks in the battle to be globally competitive, their willingness also to engage in discussions on prospects for future governance show that they do not rule out a resurgence of their economy based on its technological strengths, playing a more important regional role than hitherto, developing an East Asian Market with China and  Korea in the long term.

Conclusions:

• First, we need to change the context of our domestic debate from being obsessed about European Institutions and learn how they can be useful to us in helping to promote our interests in a rapidly changing global environment.   We must look outwards to the global challenges ahead rather than looking backwards into the past.
   
• Second, we must not just think strategically about the environment and climate change in isolation. We should learn that looking at long-term trends - as the US does – helps identify problems faster and thus a give a better chance of solving them quicker, whether it be related to demographic trends  or the speed with which the digital economy allows Asia to become more competitive, more rapidly  than hitherto.
   
• Thirdly, we should understand that the emergence of a multi-polar world does not mean that we have to deal with every partner equally. Some are more equal than others…as are the US and the EU. Time to take up the offer of developing a strategic partnership on global challenges with the US?  The Chinese have already done so….time Europe did so too.  

China