I am happy to begin entries on my new blog. This is intended to contribute ideas into policy-making across a wide range of policy and political issues, not just to enter into current political controversies.

A principal feature of the blog will be its regular reference, where evidence exists, to long-term trends on major policy issues, which are often either not taken into account for absence of information or simply ignored when major policy decisions are taken.

One particularly valuable source will be the U.S. National Intelligence Council’s (NIC) “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World” report, published in November 2008. The report is the fourth unclassified report prepared by the NIC in recent years in advance of incoming US Presidents, building on the NIC’s previous efforts - such as Mapping The Global Future 2020. This is the only process in the Western World, of which I know, which gives such rigorous long-term trends information in a readable manner (the Chinese also take this approach). Its aim is to give a common analysis for probable outcomes, setting out relative certainties, as well as key uncertainties, of what is likely to happen by 2025.
 
Indeed, the recent trend since the year 2000 in the EU has been for the European Commission’s capacity to think long-term to decline. I find it astonishing that we have so little fundamental appraisal of long-term trends when the EU takes decisions, for example on climate change, establishing the goal of reducing carbon emissions by 20% by 2020, relying on international evidence but having no independent process to assess information for itself.

Might it not be a good idea to create something similar in the EU, as exists in the US, to get a clearer idea of what the EU might expect in the future?

Long-term trends